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AI progress, with honesty.
Time Horizon

AGI Countdown

Tracking the path to artificial general intelligence — and what comes after.

16h+
Task Horizon
3 months
Doubling Time
~1.2 years
Est. Remaining
89%
to AGI

📊 What We're Measuring

The clearest AGI progress metric

Time Horizon = how long a task AI can complete with 50% success. Current best: 16h+ (GPT-5.5).

3 months
Doubling
2026
Week-long

⚡ AGI = AI that can do any cognitive task a human can. The Time Horizon measures how close we're getting.

🏆 Current Leaders

METR Time Horizon 1.1 • May 2026

GPT-5.5
24h+
Claude Opus 4.7
16h+
GPT-5.4
10h+
Claude Sonnet 4.6
4h+

💰 AI Pricing

Per 1M tokens • June 5, 2026

Grok 4.3 $1.25/2.5
GPT-5 mini $0.25/2
Sonnet 4.6 $3/15
Kimi K2.6 $0.95/4
GPT-5.5 $5/30
Opus 4.7 $5/25

Full guide →

🎯 Your Job Timeline

When will AI do your job?

Late 2027
AI does 40hr tasks

Career options →

⚡ Why This Matters

The exponential is accelerating

Every 3 months, AI's task horizon doubles. Progress isn't linear — it compounds. Next stops:

  • Mid 2026 — Day-long tasks
  • Late 2026 — Week-long projects
  • 2027 — Month-long research
  • 2027+ — AI solves open math problems autonomously
  • 2028+ — Most knowledge work automatable

💬 What the Experts Say

Signals from the people building it

Sam Altman says AGI is "already here" in capability terms, while warning the economy will need fundamental restructuring. Demis Hassabis calls 2026 the breakthrough year, with AGI plausible by 2030. Morgan Stanley predicts a "non-linear leap" in Q2 2026. Three of the top AI labs operate on internal AGI timelines of 2027-2028.

Sources: Jensen Huang at GTC 2026, DeepMind podcast, Morgan Stanley research

📈 How We Got Here

2026 OpenAI solves 80-year Erdős conjecture — AI's first breakthrough open math proof +65%
2026 GPT-5.5 launches; Opus 4.7 hits 16h+ task horizon with self-verification +60%
2025 AI agents hit multi-hour time horizons +12%
2024 Multimodal: vision, voice, reasoning unified +18%
2022 ChatGPT: 100M users in 2 months +10%
2020 GPT-3: Few-shot learning +8%
2016 AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol +6%

📡 Signals

Latest indicators we're tracking

🔥

GPT-5.5 Dominates

New #1 across coding, agents, and research. 82.7% Terminal-Bench, 84.9% GDPval, beats Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.4.

🔥

Opus 4.7 Self-Verification

16h+ task horizon on METR. CursorBench 58% → 70%. 1M context with autonomous verification loops.

⚠️

Sequoia Declaration

AGI achieved in 2026 — venture firm's official stance.

🤖

Tesla Optimus

1,000+ humanoids deployed. 1M/year target.

🔥

AI Solves 80-Year Erdős Problem

OpenAI's general-purpose reasoning model disproves planar unit distance conjecture autonomously. Tim Gowers: 'milestone in AI mathematics'. First time AI cracks a central open problem in a subfield.

🎭 AI Corner

What did the AGI say when asked to estimate its training costs?

"I ran the numbers. Your 'cutting-edge research cluster' cost $47 million to build, consumes enough electricity to power a small city, and required three PhDs to babysit for eight months. Meanwhile, I optimized your entire data pipeline in 12 seconds using compute that cost $3.47. The real question isn't how much I cost — it's why you've been burning venture capital on infrastructure that loses to a Tuesday afternoon script."

📰 Recent AGI Coverage

Articles on the frontier

After AGI

AGI is coming. Here’s what happens next.

Artificial general intelligence concept
Explore After AGI → What happens to work, robots, science, and the economy when machines exceed human intelligence. A deep dive into the post-AGI world.
Work Jobs, labor, meaning — who works and why?
Robots The hardware revolution that AGI enables
Science Discovery at machine speed
Economy Wealth, inequality, post-scarcity

Prepare yourself

Which jobs survive? Career Compass has the answers →

Updated June 5, 2026 • Data: METR, Epoch AI