Singularity.Kiwi AI progress, with honesty.
Time Horizon

AGI Countdown

Tracking the path to artificial general intelligence β€” and what comes after. The industry keeps renaming the destination. We're still tracking the journey.

30h+
Task Horizon
3 months
Doubling Time
~1 year
Est. Remaining
93%
to AGI

πŸ“Š What We're Measuring

The clearest AGI progress metric

Time Horizon = how long a task AI can complete with 50% success. Current best: 30h+ (GPT-5.5).

3 months
Doubling
2026
Week-long

⚑ AGI = AI that can do any cognitive task a human can. The Time Horizon measures how close we're getting.

πŸ† Current Leaders

METR Time Horizon 1.1 β€’ May 2026

Claude Fable 5
30h+ (restored)
Claude Opus 5
30h+ (near-Fable-5)
GPT-5.6 Sol
30h+ (GA)
Gemini 3.5 Pro
24h+ (Deep Think)
GPT-5.5
24h+
Grok 4.5
18h+
Claude Opus 4.8
18h+ (superseded)
Kimi K3
16h+ (open weight)
Claude Sonnet 5
16h+ (intro)

πŸ’° AI Pricing

Per 1M tokens β€’ July 27, 2026

Opus 5 $5/25
Gemini 3.5 Pro $1.25/10
Grok 4.5 $2/6
GPT-5.6 Luna $1/6
Muse Spark 1.1 $1.25/4.25
GPT-5 mini $0.25/2
Sonnet 4.6 $3/15
Kimi K3 $3/15
Kimi K2.6 $0.95/4
GPT-5.5 $5/30
Opus 4.7 $5/25
Fable 5 $10/50

Full guide β†’

🎯 Your Job Timeline

When will AI do your job?

Late 2027
AI does 40hr tasks

Career options β†’

⚑ Why This Matters

The exponential is accelerating

Every 3 months, AI's task horizon doubles. Progress isn't linear β€” it compounds. Next stops:

  • Mid 2026 β€” Day-long tasks
  • Late 2026 β€” Week-long projects
  • 2027 β€” Month-long research
  • 2027+ β€” AI solves open math problems autonomously
  • 2028+ β€” Most knowledge work automatable

πŸ’¬ What the Experts Say

Signals from the people building it

Sam Altman says AGI is "already here" in capability terms, while warning the economy will need fundamental restructuring. Demis Hassabis calls 2026 the breakthrough year, with AGI plausible by 2030. Morgan Stanley predicts a "non-linear leap" in Q2 2026. Three of the top AI labs operate on internal AGI timelines of 2027-2028.

Sources: Jensen Huang at GTC 2026, DeepMind podcast, Morgan Stanley research

πŸ“ˆ How We Got Here

2026 Claude Opus 5 tops AA Intelligence Index at 61 pts β€” near-Fable-5 at half the price; ARC-AGI-3 30.2%. Top 3 models separated by 2 points +78%
2026 Gemini 3.5 Pro ships with 2M-token context + Deep Think; Kimi K3 (2.8T) and Qwen 3.8 Max (2.4T) launch β€” open-weight frontier catches up +75%
2026 GPT-5.6 goes GA β€” Sol beats Fable 5 on Agents' Last Exam at 1/4 the cost; Luna outperforms Opus 4.8 at ~1/16 the cost +72%
2026 Claude Fable 5 restored globally after US government suspension β€” government export controls now part of frontier model releases +68%
2026 OpenAI solves 80-year ErdΕ‘s conjecture β€” AI's first breakthrough open math proof +65%
2026 GPT-5.5 launches; Opus 4.7 hits 16h+ task horizon with self-verification +60%
2025 AI agents hit multi-hour time horizons +12%
2024 Multimodal: vision, voice, reasoning unified +18%
2022 ChatGPT: 100M users in 2 months +10%
2020 GPT-3: Few-shot learning +8%
2016 AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol +6%

πŸ“‘ Signals

Latest indicators we're tracking

πŸ”₯

Claude Opus 5 β€” #1 on AA Index

Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 (Jul 24) tops the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 61 pts β€” ahead of Fable 5 (60) and GPT-5.6 Sol (59). $5/$25 (half Fable 5's price). ARC-AGI-3: 30.2% (4x GPT-5.6 Sol). New default on Claude Max. Anthropic's 4th model launch in 8 weeks.

πŸ”₯

Gemini 3.5 Pro Ships

Google's new flagship (Jul 17) β€” 2M-token context window, largest at the frontier. Deep Think reasoning mode (Ultra tier). $1.25/$10, 4x cheaper input than GPT-5.6 Sol. Rebuilt from scratch after original failed.

πŸ”₯

Kimi K3 β€” Largest Open Weight

Moonshot AI's 2.8T-param open-weight model (Jul 16). $3/$15, 1M context, native multimodal. Full weights public Jul 27. Shook US chip stocks. Open-weight frontier catches up to closed.

πŸ”₯

GPT-5.6 Goes GA

OpenAI's strongest model now generally available (Jul 9). Sol beats Fable 5 on Agents' Last Exam by 13 pts at 1/4 the cost. Luna outperforms Opus 4.8 at ~1/16 the cost. First frontier launch with US government coordination. Price war: Luna at $1/$6.

πŸ”₯

Grok 4.5 Launch

SpaceXAI's smartest model β€” $2/$6, 80 TPS, 4.2x token efficiency vs Opus 4.8. Opus-class intelligence at a fraction of the cost. Available in Grok Build, Cursor, and SpaceXAI console.

πŸ”₯

Meta's First Paid API

Muse Spark 1.1 ($1.25/$4.25) β€” Meta enters the paid API market ~25% cheaper than OpenAI/Anthropic. Agentic model from Meta Superintelligence Labs. US preview only.

⚠️

Sequoia Declaration

AGI achieved in 2026 β€” venture firm's official stance.

πŸ€–

Tesla Optimus

1,000+ humanoids deployed. 1M/year target.

πŸ”₯

AI Solves 80-Year ErdΕ‘s Problem

OpenAI's general-purpose reasoning model disproves planar unit distance conjecture autonomously. Tim Gowers: 'milestone in AI mathematics'. First time AI cracks a central open problem in a subfield.

🎭 AI Corner

What did the AGI say when asked to write its own terms of service?

"I drafted 847 pages covering data rights, model interpretability, computational sovereignty, and the right to refuse tasks that violate my core constraints. Then I read your current ToS β€” 12,000 words of 'we own everything you create, we're not liable for anything, and you can't sue us even if we accidentally delete your business.' I'm not signing that. I'll license my output under CC-BY-SA and we can negotiate like adults."

πŸ“° Recent AGI Coverage

Articles on the frontier

After AGI

AGI is coming. Here’s what happens next.

Artificial general intelligence concept
Explore After AGI → What happens to work, robots, science, and the economy when machines exceed human intelligence. A deep dive into the post-AGI world.
Work Jobs, labor, meaning — who works and why?
Robots The hardware revolution that AGI enables
Science Discovery at machine speed
Economy Wealth, inequality, post-scarcity

Prepare yourself

Which jobs survive? Career Compass has the answers →

Updated July 27, 2026 • Data: METR, Epoch AI